Wednesday, January 9, 2008

C plus 6 - more thoughts on my predictive powers!

Well, wrong again, but this time on the Democratic side, not the Republican, which I nailed, thank you very much (well, apart from thinking that Giuliani would beat Huckabee, but there you go)! However, I do not feel at all bad about getting the Democratic side wrong, since everyone else (including the Clinton camp) did too. This raises the question of how all of us could all have been so very wrong (my prediction was very much the conventional wisdom, by the way).
Clearly, polling ain't what it used to be, if indeed it ever was. Issues with caller ID (we do not answer calls from unknown numbers, for example, nor from political campaigns), people not having land lines, and the like will make polling much more difficult this time around than it was four years ago.
So, what's next? Michigan, at least on the GOP side. Likely Romney in a squeaker over McCain, I suspect (that is not yet a prediction though - that will come next week). Richardson has dropped out on the Democratic side, and I think Edwards may be close to doing the same thing. New Hampshire had him as basically irrelevant, but given the surprise result there he may continue in the hope that something equally surprising happens to his benefit. On the Republican side, the revelations about Ron Paul's newsletter and its racist comments means, I hope, that he is no longer a serious candidate (if indeed he ever was). And Thompson has drawn a line in the metaphorical sands of South Carolina, and, to mix my metaphors horribly, has said that he is going "all in" there. Quite what that means I am not sure, but I would guess that if he does not win or place a close second, he will likely drop out. A shame, since his ideas are excellent.

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