Monday, January 7, 2008

C plus 4 - predicting New Hampshire

Well, Romney, Thompson and Hunter all got something from Wyoming, which is more than any other Republican candidate got. Whether it means anything is another matter...
So, given my sterling reputation for prediction who do I think will win in New Hampshire? On the Democrat side, Obama will win, Hillary second, Edwards third. If Hillary is less than 5% behind Obama she can justifiably claim some sort of comeback, but I doubt that will happen. If Obama breaks 40% it is all over bar the voting. If Edwards does not get at least 15% he needs to drop out.
The Republican side is a bit more complex. First, I do not think Thompson will make any sort of showing in the race. If he gets 5% (which he might on the basis of his performance over the weekend) he has got way more than he bargained for in NH. I think McCain will win, by about 5% over Romney, with Giuliani just edging out Huckabee for third. This will stop any Huckabee bounce from Iowa dead in its tracks, and show that he was just a one state wonder. McCain plays well here but that is not the issue for him. He needs to carry that forward, and I do not think he can - immigration and McCain-Feingold are two big anchors that will drag him down. As for Romney, he will not be stopped by this result (although if he loses by 10% or more, or if the third place finisher is within 5% of him, he is in big trouble).
Anyway, there you have it. Rumors of Duncan Hunter dropping out are apparently not true, but that is simply a shame. He needs to go. If Ron Paul gets more than 10%, expect to hear a lot of media noise about it. Any less than that, and he too becomes mostly marginal.

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