Friday, December 28, 2007

C minus 6 - and it's snowing again

Would you believe it - snow, in Iowa, in late December - wow! Of course, the only people who will get excited about that are exactly the same folks as will get excited about the latest polls from the LA Times (be warned - it is in Adobe pdf format). However, as noted by Captain Ed, the numbers are less than compelling. A grand total of 174 likely Republican caucus goers were sampled, of whom 37 supported Huckabee, 23 supported Romney, and 11 supported Thompson. In other words, Huckabee has three times the support (or a little more) than Thompson - or NOT! The sample size is so small as to be meaningless. With so few people polled, there is almost no way of being certain that the sample is representative. While the standard measure of error for such things (root n over n) suggests an error of plus or minus 7.5% the reality is that a much higher degree of error is likely as a result of how the interviewees were selected. In short, the race remains as wide open as ever, and the only polls that count now are the results.
Hillary continues her tone deaf campaign by not taking any questions at her campaign stops in Iowa. Does the woman not get it, or is she simply believing her own press releases? The whole point of the early caucus in Iowa and the early primary in New Hampshire is that the candidates make themselves accessible to the public in ways that they cannot do later in the campaign. Accessibility means answering questions not brushing people off. And given how seriously folks here in Iowa (and, I have heard, in New Hampshire too!) take their responsibility in the caucuses, brushing them off like this will only result in pissing them off. Stupid, stupid, stupid. It is no wonder that Theo Caldwell of the National Post in Canada (h/t Captain Ed) states quite bluntly that the only possible choice for President is a Republican - in fact, almost any of the current crop of Republican candidates:

An obvious choice can be unnerving. When the apparent perfection of one option or the unspeakable awfulness of another makes a decision seem too easy, it is human nature to become suspicious.

This instinct intensifies as the stakes of the given choice are raised. American voters know no greater responsibility to their country and to the world than to select their president wisely. While we do not yet know who the Democrat and Republican nominees will be, any combination of the leading candidates from either party will make for the most obvious choice put to American voters in a generation. To wit, none of the Democrats has any business being president.

And that's from Canada, eh! Will it hold true in Iowa? Who knows...

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