Thursday, November 15, 2007

C minus 49 and counting

Tonight, of course, we have the next Democratic debate, set in Las Vegas. It remains to be seen whether any of the non-Hillary democrats are willing to gamble big time by going after her. Certainly, Wolf Blitzer will have to, otherwise, as noted by others, he will seem like a total wuss. Of course, if he is clever, which I suspect he is, then he will ask all candidates hard questions. This will not make any difference at all to those who cried foul when Tim Russert asked a perfectly reasonable question of Hillary last time out.

What will Wolf ask? I would think that the Chinese fundraising issue might be a good topic, or the money donated by people that Bill pardoned. Either one deserves an answer. Perhaps some other topic will come up, or maybe he will go back to the immigration issue. James Pinkerton thinks that Hillary is now mortally wounded on this - we shall see.

Does tonight's debate matter? Normally they don't but I think this one matters a lot. If Hillary does not do well, then the "taste" of the last debate (which was a disaster for her) sticks around. If she is as bad as last time out, then the wheels come off totally. If she is somewhere in between (most likely outcome) then she will continue to lose her lead, but it will still be reversible. We shall see...

Some interesting thoughts by Brian Pickrell on the race in Iowa. He indicates that most folk have not decided yet, and I think that is probably correct. I know I haven't and while anecdotes have limited value, it is worth noting that on my walk into and back home from work (about two miles through residential Iowa City) there are very few yard signs out yet. Put simply, the poll numbers in Iowa, for both parties, are very soft right now. I think that any of five people on each side could win here, and it will come down to the wire. With only seven or so weeks to go, this is getting rather exciting! Oh, and no political adverts during "House" this week, either - wonder why not?

Rather sad to find that there are those on the left wing who are attacking Obama for raising the issue of social security. Kind of suggests they would rather not talk specifics at all, lest some find their ideas repugnant...

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